Investing from First Principles

投资入门:从第一性原理出发

Investment failure rarely comes from a lack of knowledge. It comes from wrong sequencing: techniques first, principles later, and only then the discovery that the hardest part is managing yourself. This path reverses the order.

  1. Level 01

    Understand the Market

    Start with an uncomfortable premise: short-term prices are close to random.

    A Random Walk Down Wall Street 《漫步华尔街》 Burton Malkiel · 1973
  2. Level 02

    Establish Principles

    Separate investing from speculation, and turn margin of safety into discipline rather than a slogan.

    The Intelligent Investor 《聪明的投资者》 Benjamin Graham · 1949
  3. Level 03

    Learn Valuation

    Valuation is not a precise number; it is a judgment about whether the gap between price and value is wide enough.

    Security Analysis 《证券分析》 Benjamin Graham · 1934
  4. Level 04

    Find Quality and Growth

    When price is no longer cheap, the only protection left is the quality of the business itself.

    Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits 《怎样选择成长股》 Philip Fisher · 1958
  5. Level 05

    Understand Risk and Uncertainty

    Risk is not volatility. Real risk lives in the part of the world your model never included.

    The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable 《黑天鹅:如何应对不可预知的未来》 Nassim Nicholas Taleb · 2007
  6. Level 06

    Manage Your Own Behavior

    In the end, the return curve is mostly a behavior curve.

    The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness 《金钱心理学》 Morgan Housel · 2020

All paths